It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

How likely you think something is to happen depends on what you already believe about the circumstances. That is the simple ...

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), Vol. 61, No. 2 (MARCH 2012), pp. 219-235 (17 pages) We propose a randomized phase II clinical trial design based on Bayesian ...

Having a strong opinion about an issue can make it hard to take in new information about it, or to consider other options when they’re presented. Thankfully, there’s an old rule that can help us avoid ...

How do you shape perception ethically when storytelling beats facts? Here is a case for ethical storytelling in our current ...

The Bayesian method for estimating species phylogenies from molecular sequence data provides an attractive alternative to maximum likelihood with nonparametric bootstrap due to the easy interpretation ...

Two Bayesian clinical trial designs that perform subgroup-specific decision making and inference based on elicited utilities of patient outcomes are reviewed. The first is a randomized comparative ...