The actual sports part and storylines are incredible: Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are in their seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game; the Bills have a lifetime of heartbreak, including Buffalo leading Kansas City with 13 seconds left in a 2021 Divisional Round game before losing.

Greif: Philadelphia will beat Washington in the NFC because the Commanders’ defense has been leaky (allowing 25.5 points per game in the postseason, 9.5 more than Philadelphia), while the Eagles have ranked among the league’s elite defenses all season; by one metric, they stand tied for the league lead in allowing the lowest success rate.

The Buffalo Bills have waited years for this moment. Now they’re back, and facing a familiar foe. Once again the fate of the AFC hinges on a game between the Bills and Chiefs, but this is the first time since 2021 that they’ve met in the Championship game.